quarta-feira, agosto 02, 2006

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Questions and answers: Middle East crisis

The Middle East has been plunged again into an escalating crisis. The BBC News website's Tarik Kafala looks at the key issues.
How did the current crisis start?

The Hezbollah raid into Israel, in which eight Israeli soldiers were killed and two were captured, was a stunning and provocative attack.

Lebanon has seen the first Israeli land incursion since 2000. Some have argued that Hezbollah wanted to test new Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is an unknown quantity as far as military crises go.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said that the soldiers were captured to pressure Israel to release the thousands of Palestinian prisoners in its jails.
The raid was clearly a gesture of solidarity towards the Palestinian militants in Gaza who have been holding an Israeli soldier since 25 June.
Hezbollah may also have had an eye on its own situation in Lebanon where there has been increasing pressure for it to disarm.

How has Israel reacted?
The result of the raid is that Israel is fighting on two fronts. Israeli officials have cast the Hezbollah raid as an act of war and responded with air strikes, shelling and a sea blockade, threatening operations that will "turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years".
The immediate aim seems to be, as in Gaza, to build up massive pressure on the Lebanese government and the Lebanese population. Civilian casualties in Lebanon have been high and the damage to civilian infrastructure wide-ranging.
Thousands of foreigners have fled the country and there are increasing fears of a humanitarian catastrophe.
The Israeli strikes on targets other than Hezbollah installations are at least in part punitive - power installations, roads and the international airport have been hit.

What can the Lebanese government do about the situation?
Ordinary Lebanese civilians have been the main victims of the current crisis in terms of deaths and injuries.
Thousands have become internal refugees, seeking safety in areas that are not being bombed by Israel.
The country is dealing with a massive Israeli bombing campaign and a number of small land incursions. Since 2000, when Israel ended a 22-year occupation of the south, clashes on the border have been small affairs.
Israel has made it absolutely clear that it holds the Lebanese government responsible for the kidnapping of its soldiers by Hezbollah.
Many analysts see this as unfair.
Even though Hezbollah is operating from Lebanese territory and the militant group has two ministers in the Lebanese government, central government is almost powerless to influence the militant group.
It is the Hezbollah militia that is deployed in southern Lebanon, not the Lebanese army.
The group is also very popular in Lebanon and highly respected for its political activities, social services and its military record against Israel.
Most Lebanese may believe that Hezbollah's capture of the two Israeli soldiers is deeply irresponsible. There is anger that the country is again being pitched towards war, but this is unlikely to translate into widespread anger towards Hezbollah.

Is there any way out of this crisis?
Israeli officials have insisted that there will be no direct negotiation with Hezbollah or Hamas over the return of its soldiers, and no Palestinian prisoner releases.
In the past, Israel has negotiated with Hezbollah and released hundreds of prisoners, but Israeli officials are now talking about a changed situation and new rules.
In both Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli military appears to be using the opportunity afforded by the crisis to damage Hezbollah and Hamas as military organisations. A few days into the crisis, Israel demanded the disarming of Hezbollah and deployment of the Lebanese army to the southern border with Israel as pre-conditions for a ceasefire.
All sides are for now taking hardline positions, but it's difficult to see how the Israelis are going to get their soldiers back without some kind of ceasefire followed by negotiations that will almost certainly involve prisoner releases.

Will the conflict spread?
We're not yet at the stage of a regional conflict.
Much will depend on whether Israel extends its military operations to take in Syria and Iran, Hezbollah's sponsors and supporters. Officials have already laid much of the blame for the escalating crisis on Damascus and Tehran.
Iran and Syria are also the states that can influence Hezbollah more than anyone else.
Inevitably the role of the US, in restraining Israel and pushing the various parties towards some kind of ceasefire may at some later date be crucial.
The first signs of an international diplomatic intervention emerged when the UN's Kofi Annan and British PM Tony Blair called for the deployment of an international force in Lebanon.
But this may be some way off, if it gets off the ground at all.
It's widely believed that Washington has given the Israelis a window in which to continue its bombardment of Lebanon and degrade Hezbollah's military capability.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice might be headed to the Middle East at the end of the week. Should this go ahead, it might signal that Washington is ready to put its weight behind attempts to achieve a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, questions surrounding the disarmament of Hezbollah, as demanded by the UN Security Council, have been pushed way into the background for now. As are Mr Olmert's big plans for disengaging from parts of the West Bank.

Are war crimes being committed in the current conflict?
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour has said that war crimes could have been committed in the current conflict.
She said international law stressed the need to protect civilians, and insisted that there was an obligation on all parties to respect the "principle of proportionality".
She was even-handed and did not name particular leaders, but suggested that some leaders might be considered personally responsible for the alleged war crimes.
"Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians. Similarly, the bombardment of sites with alleged military significance, but resulting invariably in the killing of innocent civilians, is unjustifiable," she said.

Who are Hezbollah?
Hezbollah - or the Party of God - is a powerful political and military organisation of Shia Muslims in Lebanon.
It emerged with financial backing from Iran in the early 1980s and began a struggle to drive Israeli troops from Lebanon.

Hezbollah presents itself as a force of resistance for Lebanon and the region.
In May 2000 this aim was achieved, thanks largely to the success of the party's military arm, the Islamic Resistance.
In return, the movement, which represents Lebanon's Shia Muslims - the country's single largest community - won the respect of most Lebanese.
It now has an important presence in the Lebanese parliament and has built broad support by providing social services and health care. It also has an influential TV station, al-Manar.
But, it still has a militia that refuses to demilitarise, despite UN resolution 1559, passed in 2004, which called for the disarming of militias as well as the withdrawal of foreign (i.e about 14,000 Syrian) forces from Lebanon.
As long ago as 2000, after Israel's withdrawal, Hezbollah was under pressure to integrate its forces into the Lebanese army and focus on its political and social operations.
But, while it capitalised on its political gains, it continued to describe itself as a force of resistance not only for Lebanon, but for the region.

Syria
The Islamic Resistance is still active on the Israel-Lebanon border. Tension is focused on an area known as the Shebaa Farms, although clashes with Israeli troops occur elsewhere.
Hezbollah, with broad Lebanese political support, says the Shebaa Farms area is occupied Lebanese territory - but Israel, backed by the UN, says the farms are on the Syrian side of the border and so are part of the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since 1967.
Another casus belli cited by Hezbollah is the continued detention of prisoners from Lebanon in Israeli jails.
The movement long operated with neighbouring Syria's blessing, protecting its interests in Lebanon and serving as a card for Damascus to play in its own confrontation with Israel over the occupation of the Golan Heights.
But the withdrawal of Syrian troops in Lebanon last year - following huge anti-Syrian protests in the wake of Lebanese ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination - changed the balance of power.
Hezbollah became the most powerful military force in Lebanon in its own right and increased its political clout, gaining a seat in the Lebanese cabinet.
Analysts say Hezbollah has adopted a cautious policy since the Hariri assassination crisis erupted on 14 February 2005 - an event widely blamed on Syria, but which Damascus has vigorously denied.
Hezbollah leaders have continued to profess its support for Syria, while not criticising the Lebanese opposition. They have also stressed Lebanese unity by arguing against "Western interference" in the country.

Starting out
Hezbollah was conceived in 1982 by a group of Muslim clerics after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
It was close to a contingent of some 2,000 Iranian Revolutionary guards, based in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, which had been sent to the country to aid the resistance against Israel.
Hezbollah was formed primarily to offer resistance to the Israeli occupation.
It also dreamed of transforming Lebanon's multi-confessional state into an Iranian-style Islamic state, although this idea was later abandoned in favour of a more inclusive approach that has survived to this day.
The party's rhetoric calls for the destruction of the state of Israel. It regards the whole of Palestine as occupied Muslim land and it argues that Israel has no right to exist.
The party was long supported by Iran, which provided it with arms and money.

Passionate and demanding
Hezbollah also adopted the tactic of taking Western hostages, through a number of freelance hostage taking cells.
In 1983, militants who went on to join Hezbollah ranks carried out a suicide bombing attack that killed 241 US marines in Beirut.
Hezbollah has always sought to further an Islamic way of life. In the early days, its leaders imposed strict codes of Islamic behaviour on towns and villages in the south of the country - a move that was not universally popular with the region's citizens.
But the party emphasises that its Islamic vision should not be interpreted as an intention to impose an Islamic society on the Lebanese.

1 Comments:

Blogger ZéB said...

para compreender melhor:
http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/História_de_Israel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Israel - em inglês mas mais completo)
recomendo, também na wikipedia, http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerusalém
e há muito mais.


não vejo os judeus como eternos coitadinhos nem os árabes como terroristas maus da fita, por isso não me é clara uma tomada de posição.
no entanto fico sempre com a ideia de que os israelitas são um povo com valores e cultura mais próximos dos meus e que são mais razoáveis, mais moderados. por outro lado são eles que controlam jerusalém, o que lhes dá uma vantagem muito confortável.
ajuda ao número 7?

3/8/06 20:31  

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